Technology Has Always Changed the World
Over the decades — and centuries — transformative technologies have disrupted industries, displaced workers, and reshaped the global economy. Each time, the adjustment felt significant. And each time, humanity adapted. In fact, living standards improved and more people were employed.
US recessions are identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Their decisions factor in numerous economic indicators such as GDP growth, industrial production, and unemployment but are not contingent on an exact formula. Accordingly, past recessions have come in all shapes and sizes, depending on what you’re measuring.
Markets quickly incorporate new expectations following election outcomes. Once the ballots are counted, stock prices reflect, in real time, investor expectations about things such as regulatory or tax policy changes. When these new expectations are baked into prices, we should not expect an election effect to persist.