Evidence Based Investing

Can You Predict Postelection Winners?

Markets quickly incorporate new expectations following election outcomes. Once the ballots are counted, stock prices reflect, in real time, investor expectations about things such as regulatory or tax policy changes. When these new expectations are baked into prices, we should not expect an election effect to persist.

About Mutual Funds/ETFs and Why We Use Dimensional

There’s no other fund company that I know of that is remotely close to that level of consistent outperformance. It tells me that their scientific statistical based evidence based investing is working very well. It’s wonderful that it shows up in such a big way.

The Small Cap Value Smackdown! Update Nov. 12, 2024

Why did DFA win? First, DFA provides a greater tilt towards small and value. Another is that DFA uses techniques to overcome the large bid ask spread that exists for very small thinly traded stocks. Finally DFA also utilizes the profitability premium, which joins small and value as one of the pervasive market premiums available to investors.

Vote with Your Ballot, Not Your Life Savings

When people feel uncertain, they may be tempted to make investment decisions based on how they think elections might unfold. But there’s nothing in the historical data that’s strong enough to warrant changing your investment allocation based on who you think might win. In fact, trying to time the market may lead to costly mistakes. Investors are generally better off looking beyond elections and maintaining a steady approach to markets.

Ignoring the Bumps

There’s an important message here about not overreacting during a downturn—it could be a momentary blip in an otherwise upward climb for the markets. In fact, the Russell 3000 had an intrayear decline of at least 10% in 25 out of 45 years since 1979. In 17 of those 25, the index ended up for the year!