Evidence Based Investing

From Skynet to ChatGPT: AI and Its Investment Implications

The common thread among these examples is that each represents a tool that processes and organizes data to identify patterns and summarize information or make suggestions. This type of interaction with AI has grown to permeate our everyday lives. Have you noticed your phone offer an unsolicited ETA for your commute when you get in your car? Does your text app suggest grammar revisions based on the context of your overall message? Congrats—you’re an AI user, even if you’ve never opened a ChatGPT session.

A Number Sequence that Explains Market Behavior

In total we have 97 years of S&P500 return data (1926-2022) and the annualized return 1926-2022 is 10.1.  So the last 20 year result of 9.8 is very close to the entire 97 years, and that includes both 2008’s ugly -37.0% return and last year’s uncomfortable -18.1% return.

Reflections on Life, Markets and Economy

Produce your own 2023 “surprises” by improving your health, happiness and financial life in the areas you can control! If we get surprises showing inflation dropping faster, or, if corporate profits and consumers weather the higher interest rate environment better than expected - the market could go up, at least some. Plus the market looks ahead, so if it becomes evident that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, that will also push stocks higher in advance of those cuts.

Where's the Economy Going - Some Well Thought Out Possibilities

We are entering “Guesses Season” when you can attend nice breakfasts and luncheons when these “guessers” roll out their guesses for 2023 and beyond. Because we do not have access to the actual future results - this is EXACTLY why diversification is so important. It would be extremely aggressive to place bets with your investment funds because you think you know what is going to happen. This has proven over and over and over again to give poor results.